Key findings
• The main current humanitarian concerns are the impact of selective entry procedures along the route, the increased shelter/NFI needs in the winter months, the situation of unaccompanied minors, and the unpredictability of flow and political developments that hamper response planning.
• None of the Balkan countries currently have the capacity and/or financial resources to address the full spectrum of humanitarian needs, making Governments, particularly Greece, reliant on external support for an important part of the service provision.
• The most likely scenario for the next 3 months is a continued significant flow of asylum-seekers through the transit countries. The daily average is expected to decrease over winter and increases again from April 2016. Despite EU efforts to reduce the number of arrivals, a significant reduction in arrivals appears unlikely at this point.
• Requirements for additional information include: the status of unaccompanied minors, the profile of those arriving, information on the impact of roll-out of EU instruments for regulation of the flow.
The next Situation Analysis will become available mid-January. For more information on this analysis project, please see the explanatory one-pager.